How to invert differencing in a Python statsmodels ARIMA forecast?

倖福魔咒の 提交于 2019-12-05 12:03:48

Relying on differencing when a time trend (or multiple) may be a better strategy. Period 33 is an outlier and if you ignore it then it has consequences.

The PACF doesn't show a strong seasonal component.

It is a weak seasonal AR with March, April, May and June with strong correlation.

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