estimation

I am trying to estimate a simple AR(1) model in R of the form y[t] = alpha + beta * y[t-1] + u[t] with u[t] being normally distributed with mean zero and standard deviation sigma. I have simulated an AR(1) model with alpha = 10 and beta = 0.1 : library(stats) data<-arima.sim(n=1000,list(ar=0.1),mean=10) First check: OLS yields the following results: lm(data~c(NA,data[1:length(data)-1])) Call: lm(formula = data ~ c(NA, data[1:length(data) - 1])) Coefficients: (Intercept) c(NA, data[1:length(data) - 1]) 10.02253 0.09669 But my goal is to estimate the coefficients with ML. My negative log

Yesterday I finalised the code for detecting the audio energy of a track displayed over time, which I will eventually use as part of my audio thumbnailing project. However I would also like a method that can detect the pitch of a track displayed over time, so I have 2 options from which to base my research upon. [y, fs, nb] = wavread('Three.wav'); %# Load the signal into variable y frameWidth = 441; %# 10 msec numSamples = length(y); %# Number of samples in y numFrames = floor(numSamples/frameWidth); %# Number of full frames in y energy = zeros(1,numFrames); %# Initialize energy for frame = 1

I am relatively new to R, so I apologize if my questions isn't expressed well, or if there is excessive detail. What I'm doing here is taking a naturally occurring gas isotope of C12 and C13 that is produced at a linear rate (P) at respective fractions (F12 and F13) that sums to 1. The two isotopic gases are then consumed at rates k12 for C13 and k13 for C13. I then want to solve for P and k12 using a minimization function. The equations are: Eqn 1: conc.12 = ((F12*P)/k12)-(((F12*P)/k12)-c12zero)exp(-k12(t-t0)) Eqn 2: conc.13 = ((F13*P)/k13)-(((F13*P)/k13)-c13zero)exp(-k13(t-t0)) Eqn 3: Sum

Are you experienced with both ASP.NET and WPF coding? If so, I'll be grateful if you'll share your experience, please. We are estimating a 100-screen WPF project. Our estimation methodology involves characterizing the complexity of each screen. We then apply a standard number for the development time, based on the complexity and the technology. The standard number is based on the developer being good , not a super-star. For example, here's a screen: The user selects a row in the master grid, then edits the data in the detail and saves the changes. Ajax is used to populate and save the detail

I'm working on a project with many unknowns like moving the app from one platform to another. My original estimations are way off and there is no way I can really know for sure when this will end. How can i deal with the inability to estimate such a project. It's not that I'm adding a button to a screen or designing a web site, or creating and app or even fixing bugs. These are not methods with bugs, these are assumptions made in the overall code, which are not correct anymore and are found step by step and each analyzed and mitigated with many more unknowns. I happened to write a master

I have written application that is analyzing data and writing results in CSV file. It contains three columns: id , diff and count . 1. id is the id of the cycle - in theory the greater id, the lower diff should be 2. Diff is the sum of (Estimator - RealValue)^2 for each observation in the cycle 3 count is number of observation during cycle For 15 different values of parameter K, I am generating CSV file with name: %K%.csv , where %K% is the used value. My total number of files is 15. What I would like to do, is to write in R simple loop, that will be able to plot content of my files in order

Having used "days" as the unit for estimation of tasks in Scrum I find it hard to change to using Story Points. I believe story points should be used as they are more comparable to each other - being less dependent on the qualifications of whoever addresses the task etc. However, it isn't easy to make a team start using Story Points when they're used to estimating in days. So, how to make a team change to Story Points? What should motivate the team members to do so, and how should we apply the switch? If you want to change to using story points instead of duration, you just got to start

Some questions about Function Points: 1) Is it a reasonably precise way to do estimates? (I'm not unreasonable here, but just want to know compared to other estimation methods) 2) And is the effort required worth the benefit you get out of it? 3) Which type of Function Points do you use? 4) Do you use any tools for doing this? Edit : I am interested in hearing from people who use them or have used them. I've read up on estimation practices, including pros/cons of various techniques, but I'm interested in the value in practice . Mike Cohn in his Agile Estimating and Planning consider FPs to be

What are your experiences regarding project planning and creating hour estimates for new projects? What is the approach you are using, and why has or has it not worked for you? Are there any best practices to take into account? Estimation Tasks The principles that I try to use (I don't always get the opportunity) are: Step-wise refinement 3 point estimates Risk analysis Step-wise refinement When estimating it's important to estimate at the right granularity and to continually break down and add tasks until you're confident in the estimates. Quite often, estimating highlights a lengthy,