I agree with Russ Cam that it depends on what your team is familiar with. When I am doing work for my personal business apps, I much prefer GWT. I find javascript, even with jquery, to have annoying object oriented syntax. If you have an app with 10,000 lines of UI code, jquery strikes me as something that would lead to a mess of hard to maintain code with poor reuse.
Does anyone know of a large scale project done in jquery?
I think if you are trying to squeeze every last byte out of the resulting filesize, don't use any library and write the javascript from scratch (ie: google homepage fade effect).
Something to think about regarding javascript/jquery versus gwt. If you use common object oriented principles and design patterns, you will likely get better performing code with gwt. Why?
Let's take the example of polymorphism. If you write an app that uses heavy polymorphism in javascript, you will get the benefit of maintanability and code reuse this provides. However, your code will also get the performance hit of using polymorphism.
Now, if you used gwt, you will also get the benefit of maintanability and code reuse this provides, BUT the gwt compiler will optimize away the polymorphism into concrete class usage, hence increasing performance.