Recently I had an interesting discussion with a colleague about unit tests. We were discussing when maintaining unit tests became less productive, when your contracts change.
It's better to have to fix unit test that fail due to intentional code changes than not having tests to catch the bugs that are eventually introduced by these changes.
When your codebase has a good unit test coverage, you may run into many unit test failures that are not due to bugs in the code but intentional changes on the contracts or code refactoring.
However, that unit test coverage will also give you confidence to refactor the code and implement any contract changes. Some test will fail and will need to be fixed, but other tests will eventually fail due to bugs that you introduced with these changes.
I look at it this way, when your contract changes, you should treat it like a new contract. Therefore, you should create a whole new set of UNIT test for this "new" contract. The fact that you have an existing set of test cases is besides the point.
One of the rules for unit tests code (and all other code used for testing) is to treat it the same way as production code - no more, no less - just the same.
My understanding of this is that (beside keeping it relevant, refactored, working etc. like production code) it should be looked at it the same way from the investment/cost prospective as well.
Probably your testing strategy should include something to address the problem you have described in the initial post - something along the lines specifying what test code (including stubs/mocks) should be reviewed (executed, inspected, modified, fixed etc) when a designer change a function/method in production code. Therefore the cost of any production code change must include the cost of doing this - if not - the test code will become "third-class citizen" and the designers' confidence in the unit test suite as well as its relevance will decrease... Obviously, the ROI is in the timing of bugs discovery and fix.
One principle that I rely on here is removing duplication. I generally don't have many different fakes or mocks implementing this contract (I use more fakes than mocks partly for this reason). When I change the contract it is natural to inspect every implementation of that contract, production code or test. It bugs me when I find I'm making this kind of change, my abstractions should have been better thought out perhaps etc, but if the test codes is too onerous to change for the scale of the contract change then I have to ask myself if these also are due some refactoring.
Unit tests surely can not catch all bugs, even in the ideal case of 100% code / functionality coverage. I think that is not to be expected.
If the tested contract changes, I (the developer) should use my brains to update all code (including test code!) accordingly. If I fail to update some mocks which therefore still produce the old behaviour, that is my fault, not of the unit tests.
It is similar to the case when I fix a bug and produce a unit test for, but I fail to think through (and test) all similar cases, some of which later turns out to be buggy as well.
So yes, unit tests need maintenance just as well as the production code itself. Without maintenance, they decay and rot.
I have similar experiences with unit tests - when you change the contract of one class often you need to change loads of other tests as well (which will actually pass in many cases, which makes it even more difficult). That is why I always use higher level tests as well:
Please note that even if you have 100% unit test coverage, you are not even guaranteed that your application starts! That is why you need higher level tests. There are so many different layers of tests because the lower you test something, the cheaper it usually is (in terms of development, maintaining test infrastructure as well as execution time).
As a side note - because of the problem you mentioned using unit tests teaches you to keep your components as decoupled as possible and their contracts as small as possible - which is definitely a good practise!