Simple: You cant.
In Google I/O 2012 answered: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yc8YrVc47TI&feature=player_detailpage#t=1682s
update:
you can check if the user can see the notification in the status bar i.e. able TO CHECK (in the code) IF THE NOTIFICATION IS VISIBLE TO THE USER where android version >= 4.3.
http://developer.android.com/reference/android/service/notification/NotificationListenerService.html#getActiveNotifications%28%29