Generally speaking, is there a performance difference between using a JOIN to select rows versus an EXISTS where clause? Searching various Q&A web sites suggests that a
NOT EXISTS is more efficient than using a LEFT OUTER JOIN to exclude records that are missing from the participating table using an IS NULL condition because the optimizer will elect to use an EXCLUSION MERGE JOIN with the NOT EXISTS predicate.
While your second test did not yield impressive results for the data sets you were using the performance increase from NOT EXISTS over a LEFT JOIN is very noticeable as your data volumes increase. Keep in mind that the tables will need to be hash distributed by the columns that participate in the NOT EXISTS join just like they would in the LEFT JOIN. Therefore, data skew can impact the performance of the EXCLUSION MERGE JOIN.
EDIT:
Typically, I would defer to EXISTS as a replacement for IN instead of using it for re-writing a join solution. This is especially true when the column(s) participating in the logical comparison can be NULL. That's not to say you couldn't use EXISTS in place of an INNER JOIN. Instead of an EXCLUSION JOIN you will end up with an INCLUSION JOIN. The INNER JOIN is in essence an inclusion join to begin with. I'm sure there are some nuances that I am overlooking but you can find those in the manuals if you wish to take the time to read them.