Do I really have to learn Objective-C to develop solid Mac Apps?
Currently, yes.
As Mac users tend to use only applications that have a nice (native) GUI, i don't think that Mono and GTK+ or any Java GUI (Swing) will fit their needs.
Correct.
There are projects like Cocoa#, PyObjC and RubyCocoa, but are they ready for primetime?
Cocoa#: I don't know, as I don't use C#.
PyObjC: Sort of, but Cocoa in Python is a bit of a hack, since Python isn't Smalltalky enough.
RubyCocoa: Maybe. I'm waiting for MacRuby to mature, though. See also:
- Jens Alfke on MacRuby
- Jesper on MacRuby