I think it's fair to say that in 1980, if you were using a computer, you were either getting paid for it or you were a geek... so what's changed?
Printers and consumer-level desktop
publishing. Meant you didn't need a
printing press to make high-volume,
high-quality printed material. That
was big - of course, nowadays we
completely take it for granted, and
mostly we don't even bother with the
printing part because everyone's
online anyway.
Colour. Seriously. Colour screens made a huge difference to non-geeks'
perception of games & applications.
Suddenly games seemed less like hard
work and more like watching TV, which
opened the doors for Sega, Nintendo,
Atari et al to bring consumer gaming
into the home.
Media compression (MP3s and video
files). And a whole bunch of things -
like TiVO and iPods - that we don't
really think of as computers any more
because they're so ubiquitous and so
user-friendly. But they are.
The common thread here, I think, is stuff that was once impossible (making printed documents; reproducing colour images accurately; sending messages around the world in real time; distributing audio and video material), and was then expensive because of the equipment and logistics involved, and is now consumer-level. So - what are big corporates doing now that used to be impossible but might be cool if we can work out how to do it small & cheap?
Anything that still involves physical transportation is interesting to look at. Video conferencing hasn't replaced real meetings (yet) - but with the right technology, it still might. Some recreational travel could be eliminated by a full-sensory immersive environment - home cinema is a trivial example; another is the "virtual golf course" in an office building in Soho, where you play 18 holes of real golf on a simulated course.
For me, though, the next really big thing is going to be fabrication. Making things. Spoons and guitars and chairs and clothing and cars and tiles and stuff. Things that still rely on a manufacturing and distribution infrastructure. I don't have to go to a store to buy a movie or an album any more - how long until I don't have to go to the store for clothing and kitchenware?
Sure, there are interesting developments going on with OLED displays and GPS and mobile broadband and IoC containers and scripting and "the cloud" - but it's all still just new-fangled ways of putting pictures on a screen. I can print my own photos and write my own web pages, but I want to be able to fabricate a linen basket that fits exactly into that nook beside my desk, and a mounting bracket for sticking my guitar FX unit to my desk, and something for clipping my cellphone to my bike handlebars.
Not programming related? No... but in 1980, neither was sound production. Or video distribution. Or sending messages to your relatives in Zambia. Think big, people... :)
