I have the version of NuGet that comes with MVC3 (1.0), but when I try to upgrade to the latest version (currently 1.4) it failes and I get this in the log file:
This is documented on our Known Issues page: http://docs.nuget.org/docs/reference/known-issues
There's two reasons why you might run into this issue. You've installed an unsigned or wrongly signed version of NuGet. For example, if you grab a build off of our continuous integration server (http://ci.nuget.org/) or if you installed one of our previous CodePlex releases.
There's another issue affecting some users of Windows XP or Windows 2003 where it appears the certificate authority on the machines are incorrectly reporting the certificate as not valid. We're still investigating this issue.