The demand for development workforce has been growing rapidly last 40 years, and this need will not stop. Since the rate of clever (vide Joel’s “smart and get things done”) people in the population remains generally the same, educating more and more developers each year means that the average smartness of a developer is getting lower.
40 years ago, it was demigods who became developers; 20 years ago, it was a job for clever people, while now when I look at young CS students at my Alma Mater it seems that they are taking everyone who knows what a computer is.
This does not mean a disaster is coming – western world keeps importing smart people (or outsourcing work) from emerging markets or third world countries. The new development tools make it easier to develop good applications. Those factors seem to neutralize each other, making MM-M eternal true.
