I don't think that Access is going away anytime soon. The beta of office 2010 is out with an updated Access included and the Microsoft blogs are hyping the features of Access 14 (the version after 2010) which include improved Access Projects (.ADPs) with better support for SQL Server 2005/2008 and better .Net integration.
If i were to look for a new integrated database development system providing front and backend features Oracle APEX would be the main contender. Front ends are web based requiring no runtime on the client, the whole system is free to download and instal (express edition) and given a few years the entrance barrier for new users hopefully will be reduced so it is something laymen can dabble in.
