I no longer refactor anything without a reasonable set of unit tests.
I don't do full-on TDD with unit tests first and code second. I do CALTAL -- Code A LIttle, Test A Little -- development. Generally, code goes first, but not always.
When I find that I've got to refactor, I make sure I've got enough tests and then I hack away at the structure with complete confidence that I don't have to keep the entire old-architecture-becomes-new-architecture plan in my head. I just have to get the tests to pass again.
I refactor the important bits. Get the existing suite of tests to pass.
Then I realize I forgot something, and I'm back to CALTAL development on the new stuff.
Then I see things I forgot to delete -- but are they really unused everywhere? Delete 'em and see what fails in the testing.
Just yesterday -- part way through a big refactoring -- I realized that I still didn't have the exact right design. But the tests still had to pass, so I was free to refactor my refactoring before I was even done with the first refactoring. (whew!) And it all worked nicely because I had a set of tests to validate the changes against.
For flying solo TDD is my copilot.