I have a new app that I released for App Store that has min target set to iOS 13. In App Store Connect under Pricing and Availability->Last-Compatible Version Settings it states
The "Last compatible version" setting only applies to existing customers; i.e. People who have already purchased/downloaded your app.
They are able to continue to access the older version on devices that are not compatible with your latest version.
People who have never purchased your app before just won't see it in the store if their device isn't compatible.
If you release a version that requires iOS 13, your new customers will be running iOS 13 or later.
For reference, the last compatible version setting is described in the App Store Connect help (Emphasis mine)
The versions of an app that are available for existing customers to download from iCloud. You need to exclude app versions from iCloud if the version includes legal or usability issues.