Suppose I have an Azure role with three instances running. I ask Azure to change the role count to two either by Management Portal or via Management API.
How will Azure
It will usually be the last one to be spun up. So you have IN_0 IN_1 and IN_3. I've only ever see IN_3 go down when you remove one so that seems to be the one.
However, this is not documented anywhere by Microsoft so this isn't guaranteed to be the one that goes down... just seems to be in practice.