I have configured a Jenkins job to release my maven project automatically. This is done by using the following: mvn --batch-mode clean release:prepare release:perform
As suggested it Khmarbaise, I also think that there is no solution to your problem.
Is there any rule, that can automatically tell you if you must change the second or the third number ? Indeed, I don't think so. Saying that, you can't ask Maven / Jenkins to choose it for you, one time major version digit, the other minor version digit.
You must change it via a parameter, or let user configure it via the Jenkins M2 Release plugin, as suggested by willome. It can only be a manual action.