This is basically a math problem, but very programing related: if I have 1 billion strings containing URLs, and I take the first 64 bits of the MD5 hash of each of them, what ki
You have tagged this as "birthday-paradox", I think you know the answer already.
P(Collision) = 1 - (2^64)!/((2^64)^n (1 - n)!)
where n is 1 billion in your case.
You will be a bit better using something other then MD5, because MD5 have pratical collusion problem.