I have climate data (temperature, precipitation, snow depth) for all of Canada between 1900 and 2009. I have written a basic website and the simplest page a
I don't think autoregression is what you want. Non-linear isn't what you want either because the implies discontinuous data. You have continuous data, it just may not be a straight line. If you're just visualizing, and especially if you don't know what the shape is supposed to be then loess is what you want.
It's easy to also get a confidence interval band around the line if you just plot the data with ggplot2.
qplot(x, y, data = df, geom = 'point') + stat_smooth()
That will make a nice plot.
If you want to a simpler graph in straight R.
plot(x, y)
lines(loess.smooth(x,y))