Step number 1 for an existing site or a replacement for the same is to gather and analyze. Statistics.
No point in first modeling predictions if they are outside the central limit. (They will come out in a rigorous approach anyway)
And in all cases, you should be working in concert with someone from the NOC. Reasons are too obvious and the thread here that supports a hero approach is not good for your company; especially as you will be learning as you go. Not to say that you can't be a hero, but NOC's are notoriously belligerent to performance numbers that are dropped in their lap in a decision making meeting.
